Filed under
propulsion
5 milestones, in chronological order.
- Written 1949, published 1952Canals and Dreamers
Von Braun costs out a Mars expedition
Ten ships, seventy crew, and 950 launches to assemble the fleet in Earth orbit: the first Mars expedition worked out in real numbers, and never flown.
- Tested 1969, terminated January 1973First Contact
NERVA runs in Nevada, then the money stops
A nuclear engine ran 28 times at Jackass Flats at twice the exhaust velocity of any chemical stage. The budget office zeroed it, and the programme ended in January 1973.
- 2023 – 2026The Present Push
Thirteen Starship flights, and Mars slips to 2028
SpaceX has flown Starship thirteen times since April 2023. None has reached orbit, none has transferred propellant in space, and the 2026 Mars window has been given up.
- Every 779.9 days — windows in 2026, 2028–29 and 2031The Road AheadPlanned
The 26-month clock that governs everything
Earth and Mars line up for a cheap transfer once every 779.9 days. A six-week hardware delay does not cost six weeks; it costs more than two years.
- No earlier than the 2028–29 windowThe Road AheadPlanned
Starship meets the one-tonne landing ceiling
Nothing heavier than Perseverance's 1,025 kg has ever been set down on Mars. Starship proposes roughly a hundred tonnes, and it has not yet reached orbit.